Wall Street Forecaster

Monday Market Reversal?

Monday is an unusual day.  Three major reversal events on one day: Astrological, Dynamic Cycle, and Gann.  I was originally bullish on May, but the odd way things have gone in the past two weeks, I can only conclude we are going down.
We should see the following: SPX < 1240, OEX < 558, DJI < 11,500
 
Also of note is that heliocentric Mercury is entering Sagittarius; a time when metals go a bit crazy.  Should be an interesting show.

Gary Lammert's latest fractal analysis

Gary Lammert's latest:

Monday 25 April, 2010 is the 164th day (2x) of the 82 day (x) 6 May 2010 to 31 August 2010 base fractal composed of a perfect Lammert averaged x/2.5x/2x/1.6x growth and decay pattern :: 12/30/24/19 days. The 6 May 2010 actual fractal nodal lows are14/27/43 days - the asset valuations exist within an integrated system; lower lows predict the direction of asset valuations.

This 82 day base fractal and the subsequent 31 August 2010 64 day base fractal which is composed of two subfractals: 8/18/12 days and 7/15/10 days form the two interlocking fractal bases for the coming historical asset valuation collapse. On Monday 25 April 2011 the great Wilshire, summation of all US equity valuation, is expected to have minutely gaps to higher levels but not exceeding the February 18 2011 high - and potentially end on the low of the day.

The area under the equity valuation curves represents the available speculative money to support asset valuations. The y axis is time and x axis is asset valuation. The system integrates a portion of preceding decay fractal into the next phase of growth. This is why in quantum fractal saturation macroeconomics uses a double counting system whereby a nodal low is designated as time unit one vice time unit zero and why larger fractal times units, for example months which incorporate the terminal portions of the lower order weeks are more accurate. Looking at the monthly chart for the Wilshire from the 6 March 2009 low, a x/2.5x/2x fractal or 5/13/10 months is easily discernible. This is a Lammert growth sequence first described in Urban Survival - a 1929 replay and later in the 2005 The Economic Fractalist main page. http://www.economicfractalist.com/ 

In its toolbox to fix or maintain the US macroeconomic tax generating engine (essential for debt obligation liquidation) the 1913 Federal Reserve has only two tools left in its tool kit: a hammer and a very large sledge hammer. This delicate engine will need some careful sledgehammer taps to loosen and remove bolts. Bolts are better removed with a proper fitting wrench; a sledgehammer is only likely to damage other parts of the engine with little on the bolts. While maintaining funding for social security, medicare, medicaid, US military government contractors and federal government workers, the use of the hammer of zero interest rates and sledgehammer of money fabrication is killing savers, traditional banking practices, and the middle class through commodity inflation. The Federal reserve's acceptable level of inflation appears to refer solely to wage pressure. There is no wage pressure, no need for the elite to be concerned about the little people having more opportunity in this saturated macroeconomy, because the central bank's hammer and sledge hammer mentality, in such an asset saturated environment primarily caused by the federal reserve's practices, has created such asset overvaluation of the common citizen's major holding, i,.e., real estate and such a coexisting and now collapsing bubble in the service sector - which after the stimulus package is now regressing. The sledgehammer approach of the central banks have defacto promoted only one group: the collective class of speculators, financiers, the moneyed elite, bankers, and this group's lobbied and bought politicians. The sledgehammer approach of the central banks - which is the central bankers' only end option and tool - is doomed to failed. While it might succeed in a Parker's brother game, it cannot succeed in a real macroeconomy system - it is failing. The bureaucracies and entire system needs to be reordered. Incentives have to be established to reward saving and actual useful job creation. Global merciless taxation of speculation and transactions on speculation trades must be established to crush the money changers and that avenue of worthless gain. History shows banking to be an incredible scam and central bankers central to the scam. Napoleon had it right. Ross Perot had it right.

With regard to integration of preceding decay areas of the ongoing valuation curves, the 6 March 2009 second fractal from nodal low to nodal low 8 July 2009 to 1 July 2010 was 249 days in length. The ideal first fractal would be 100 days which is captured in a 5/13/10 month:: x/2.5x/2x growth fractal. The Wilshire's 18 February 2010 high was the 162nd day of a 100/249/162 day series. The golden Fibonacci ratio is 1.618. The global macroeconomy is at its saturation limits: outstanding bad debt will never to be repaid; a plethora of entitlements will never to be honored; housing mortgages are grossly beyond the market value; global housing supply relative to wages is disproportionally enormous, especially in China, completely disconnected from the laws of supply and demand; 2011 job numbers and job wages in the US are remarkably and historically ten million less than 2001 in spite of a growing population, young Americans face a wall of inopportunity,- and the Fed and world central bankers are swinging drunkenly, blindfolded, and without wherewithal, over sized sledgehammers that are causing more damage than benefit.. The global macroeconomy is at a multigenerational saturation point. Perhaps central bankers cannot discontinue what they are doing because they know they are so very responsible for the current state of overvaluation and oversupply.

18 February 2011 is near the end of this saturation area. Valuation growth, even under the central bankers most ardent sledgehammer tactics to impossibly fix a complicated and elegant engine of macroeconomic balance, will not not proceed to higher valuations. In nature a limitation and bending of growth occurs at natural time ordered saturation areas. The Fibonacci ratio:1.618 empirically characterizes this limitation and the 162nd day, 18 February 2011, of the third fractal of a 100/249/162 day sequence (considering half trading days) is a reasonable retrospective saturation high.

Now for predicted decay. How many times predicted and how many times wrong? Many. Many. Many. Edison too made a few bad bulbs; he knew the principal to be true; but he just didn't have right observation mix. (Perhaps he should have kept Tesla around).

The predicted decay sequence:

From the 6 May 2010 82 day base and the 31 August 64 day base a synergistic second fractal sequence is hypothesized with 25 April 2011 the exact 2x ratio (164th day) of the 6 May 2010 82 day base and the final higher high for the elite Dow and final lower high to the Fibonocci 18 Feburary 2011 averaged ideal 100/249/161.8 day fractal sequence for the US all inclusive great Wilshire.

At the conclusion of the 31 August 2010 64 day base, a 13/30/33 day :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y day decay fractal (74 days) is observed for Wilshire. The historical greatest ever decay fractal starting on 16 March 2011 is an expected 10/25/25 day y/2.5y/2.5y decay fractal with the 19th day of the second 25 day fractal or 25 April 2011 - the final higher high for the DJIA and final lower high for the all-encompassing Wilshire. The third decay fractal of 25 days is expected to be an 8/18 day decay fractal with the break-down after the 15th day of the second 18 day fractal. The 15th day is day 128 2x of the 31 August 2010 64 day x base fractal.

The ideal final completion of the lower low is expected on day 12 of a 8/18/12 day fractal which is day 2.5x or day 205 of the 6 May 2010 82 day x base fractal.

Source: http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm  April 25th, 2011

SPX Daily Forecast

Higher prices throughout the day.  Lower prices tomorrow.

SPX Daily Forecast

Selling around mid-day followed by more buying.  Day should finish up.

SPX Daily Forecast

Selloff this morning, then a recovery this afternoon.

OSS NEWSLETTER & FORECAST

This week's newsletter and forecast has been posted at:

http://www.oss.cc/Newsletters/oss_Newsletters.asp

SPX Daily forecast

Selling this morning. Should recovery this afternoon and finish the day up.

SPX Daily Forecast

Selling into this afternoon, then maybe a bit of a recovery.

SPX Intraday Update

Should move a little higher now before moving to the low for the day.

SPX Daily Forecast

High for the day should be around Noon, then selling into the close.